PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE

Kenyans see democracy and economic growth as inextricably linked. Their main aspiration for democracy, according to Afrobarometer, is that it will create more equitable distribution of economic opportunity. For Kenya’s economy to take off, it must distribute power among ethnic groups. “Kenya could be a shining example,” said Barkan. “But it could unravel further politically and the economy could become moribund.” Juma believes for regional imbalances to be addressed, the country needs to upgrade its infrastructure. He suggests that a large-scale government employment scheme, structured like the New Deal in the 1930s United States, could employ youth to do this.

Most experts see a limited role for international actors such as the United States and the European Union in Kenya’s political future. Despite recent turmoil, the country has a vibrant media, a thriving civil society, and an economy that—prior to the election crisis—was on the upswing. It is not dependent on international aid. Thus democratization “can only go as fast as the locals can go,” says Barkan. Fallout from the December elections will likely slow this process, but to what degree is unknown. The tourism industry has already taken a significant hit, and the Economist Intelligence Unit says that foreign investors may be loath to pour funds into Kenya “over the medium rather than just the short term.”